When most people think of war, they imagine soldiers, tanks, aircraft carriers, and, more recently, armed drones. But the more dangerous—and in many ways, more enduring—form of modern conflict is happening far from the battlefield. It’s playing out in banks, boardrooms, supply chains, and digital ledgers. Economic warfare has quietly become the frontline of great power rivalry, and unlike traditional wars, this one rarely makes headlines until it has already reshaped the world.
As a retired intelligence officer, I’ve seen how nations use money and markets with the same precision once reserved for missiles and rifles. And while the world still builds military arsenals, the most powerful weapon in our time may be access—or denial—of resources, capital, and technology. Think rare earth–and even water.
Sanctions: A Tool That Cuts Both Ways
The most obvious form of economic warfare is sanctions. Washington has leaned heavily on this tool for decades, weaponizing access to the dollar system to punish adversaries from Tehran to Moscow. On paper, sanctions are clean—they don’t require boots on the ground or a shot fired. No dead soldiers. But in practice, they often ripple far beyond their intended target.
Russia is a prime example. Western sanctions after the invasion of Ukraine were meant to cripple Moscow’s economy. Instead, they accelerated something U.S. policymakers didn’t anticipate: the rapid deepening of Russia’s economic ties with China, India, and other non-Western partners. In other words, sanctions pushed adversaries closer together while forcing much of the world to rethink their dependence on the dollar.
That unintended consequence should remind us that economic warfare is rarely a one-way street. Every action breeds a counteraction, and the global system is shifting as nations look for alternatives. This is not 1995, when China and India did not count and the USSR recently came apart.
Rare Earths and the New Oil
If you want to understand where the next economic battles will be fought, look at critical minerals. Cobalt, lithium, and rare earths are no longer niche resources for electronics—they are the lifeblood of the green economy. Electric vehicles, solar panels, advanced semiconductors—all of them depend on these minerals. Not to mention defense requirements.
Here’s the problem: the United States doesn’t control much of the supply. China has spent decades locking down global access, particularly in Africa. Angola, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Zambia have for decades been courted by Beijing, not just with investment, but with infrastructure projects that bind their economies to China’s orbit.
This isn’t resource competition in the old sense. It’s strategic positioning. If China controls the flow of rare earths, it holds leverage over entire industries. That’s not just economic power—it’s coercive power. Imagine a future crisis where Beijing can throttle Western technology production without firing a shot. That’s not theoretical; it’s already in motion. Sun Tzu playbook.
Debt Diplomacy and Hidden Strings
Another front in economic warfare is debt. Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has become one of the most ambitious geopolitical projects of the century. Billions poured into ports, railways, and power plants may look like generosity, but many of those loans come with hidden strings.
When a nation can’t pay, the Chinese state doesn’t simply forgive the debt. Instead, Beijing extracts concessions: long-term leases of strategic ports, preferential access to resources, or political influence that weakens local sovereignty. From Sri Lanka to Peru, the pattern is clear.
For the U.S. and its allies, the challenge isn’t just competing with China’s money—it’s offering an alternative that doesn’t leave nations trapped. That requires patience, investment, and an understanding that economic warfare isn’t measured in months, but decades.
Cyber and Financial Systems: The New Frontline
We can’t talk about economic warfare without discussing cyber. Banks, trading platforms, and global payment networks are now prime targets. A well-placed cyberattack on a financial system can cause more chaos in a week than an entire year of traditional fighting.
North Korea, despite being economically weak, has used cyber theft to fund its weapons program, stealing billions through attacks on global banks and cryptocurrency exchanges. Russia has used cyber tools to disrupt markets and test the resilience of Western economies. And China, with its vast cyber apparatus, has the ability to target both financial and industrial systems.
The battlefield of the future may not be a city block in some contested territory—it could be the digital infrastructure that underpins global commerce.
Why Economic Warfare Matters More Than We Admit
The great irony is that while militaries still prepare for tanks and planes, the true contest for power may come down to who can shape the flow of capital, resources, and technology. Wars today are less about seizing territory and more about seizing leverage.
That’s why nations like the U.S. cannot afford to think of economic warfare as a “soft” tool. It’s not. It’s the hard reality of how influence is gained and lost in the 21st century. When you can deny an adversary resources, collapse their currency, or isolate them from markets, you wield a power as devastating as any military strike.
The Lesson for the Future
Economic warfare isn’t new, but its scale and sophistication are unprecedented. Nations that adapt, diversify their supply chains, protect their financial systems, and invest in strategic industries will survive. Those that don’t will find themselves dependent, vulnerable, and easily coerced.
For intelligence officers, the lesson is simple: watch the flow of money and resources as closely as you watch the movement of spies and armies. Because in today’s world, the former often dictates the latter.
The calm you see in markets or trade agreements is deceptive. Beneath the surface, the battle is raging. And unlike conventional wars, this one won’t end with a ceasefire—it will simply evolve, shaping the balance of power for generations.