When people talk about U.S.–China competition, most think of the South China Sea, Taiwan, or tech wars. But there’s another front much closer to home, and it’s unfolding every day across Latin America. As a former intelligence officer with decades of experience tracking global influence campaigns, to include in this specific AOR, I can tell you: economic warfare is real, and Latin America is a key battleground.  We might not call this contest ‘warfare’ but the CCP certainly does.

While bullets aren’t flying, the struggle is just as serious. China and the United States are locked in a long-term contest for influence, and the tools aren’t tanks or aircraft carriers—they’re trade deals, infrastructure loans, port investments, and political partnerships. The outcome will determine not just who holds sway in the region, but how secure and stable the Western Hemisphere remains for decades to come.

The Chinese Playbook: Infrastructure, Debt, and Dependency

China’s strategy in Latin America isn’t hard to understand once you’ve seen it in action. It starts with money. Beijing offers generous loans to countries in need of cash. Then come the promises of roads, bridges, railways, ports, and power plants, all shiny, much-needed infrastructure projects. In places like Peru, Ecuador, Bolivia, and Venezuela, China has made deep inroads with this approach.

But these projects often come with strings attached. Many of the loans are tied to Chinese contractors and suppliers. Some deals involve long-term access to natural resources or strategic infrastructure—like shipping ports, energy grids, or communications systems. Over time, this creates dependency. And that’s the real goal: long-term political leverage.

As someone who’s studied influence campaigns up close, I can tell you that this isn’t just about economics. It’s a soft-power offensive designed to tilt governments toward Beijing’s interests and away from ours. And in some cases, it’s working.

Why the Region Matters to the U.S.

Latin America isn’t just “our backyard.” It’s our neighborhood, and what happens there affects our economy, our borders, and our security. The region provides key imports, from agricultural goods to critical minerals. It’s also central to migration patterns, counter-narcotics operations, and global trade routes.

If China becomes the dominant economic partner in Latin America, it won’t just change trade flows. It will shift political alliances, military cooperation, and even voting patterns in international institutions. That undermines decades of U.S. diplomacy and opens the door to authoritarian influence just south of our border.

What We’re Getting Wrong

For too long, the U.S. has been inconsistent in its engagement with Latin America. We’ve made promises we didn’t follow through on. We’ve let domestic politics distract us from sustained foreign policy. And we’ve underestimated how attractive Chinese investment can be to governments desperate for development.

In intelligence, we learn that perception is often as important as reality. Right now, many Latin American countries see China as a more reliable partner, one that shows up with cash and doesn’t ask too many questions about governance or transparency.

That doesn’t mean they prefer China’s model. It means we haven’t offered a competitive alternative.

How the U.S. Can Compete Smartly

We don’t need to mimic China’s approach to win back influence. In fact, we shouldn’t. What we need is a smarter, values-based strategy that focuses on long-term partnerships and mutual benefit.  

First, think engineers, not Green Berets. We need to recommit to economic investment in the region, but on terms that are fair, transparent, and empowering. U.S. companies should be incentivized to build infrastructure and energy projects that support local economies, not exploit them.

Second, we need to strengthen diplomatic relationships with consistent, respectful engagement. This includes supporting anti-corruption efforts, judicial independence, and civil society—all things China tends to ignore.

Third, we should expand intelligence-sharing and security cooperation where it makes sense. Many governments are concerned about organized crime, trafficking, and instability. These are areas where the U.S. has experience and tools that can build trust.

Finally, we need to make it clear that our goal isn’t domination, it’s partnership. That message will resonate if we back it up with action.

From the Field: The Subtle Signs of Influence

During my career, I often looked for subtle indicators of shifting influence: who gets invited to high-level summits, whose equipment shows up in critical infrastructure, whose media outlets are shaping the narrative. In Latin America today, those signs increasingly point to China.

Chinese telecom firms are building out networks across the region. Chinese mining companies are buying up lithium rights. Chinese-funded think tanks are hosting conferences in Spanish and Portuguese, subtly nudging the region’s future leaders toward Beijing’s worldview.

This isn’t conspiracy, it’s competition. And the U.S. needs to start playing to win.

Final Thoughts

The battle for influence in Latin America won’t be won with threats or bravado. It will be won through smart policy, steady engagement, and meaningful partnerships.

As someone who’s spent a lifetime working in the shadows of global power struggles, I believe this one matters deeply—not just for our interests abroad, but for our future at home. Economic warfare may be quiet, but its consequences are loud. If we ignore this front, we do so at our own risk.

The good news? We still have time to act. But we need to move, not with panic but with purpose.